If you’re trying to leave the race track with more cash than you entered with, you better learn how to handicap a race and pick winners better than the crowd. Some people think that means they have to pick more winners than the average person. That isn’t necessarily true.
It is common knowledge that the favorite in a race, the horse with the most money bet on it, wins about a third of the time. That statistic can be misleading. Some favorites go off at a very short price, such as 2-5 while others go off at much higher odds, such as 5-2. While the horse at 2-5 will pay $2.40 to win, the horse at 5-2 odds will pay $7.00 for every $2 bet. That is a big difference.
If the horses at 5-2 won a third of the time, all you would have to do is bet any favorite at 5-2 odds and you would be ahead of the game, but the problem is that the 5-2 favorites don’t win at the same rate as horses at 2-5. No matter what the odds may be on the favorite, they usually pay less than their chances of winning justify for fair value. That figure of about a third of the races includes the low priced favorites who may win more than a third of the time and the high end favorites who may win less than a third of the time.
Therefore, you not only need to handicap the horse race better than the crowd, but you need to pick horses who will win enough times to offset anddatos americanas hoy the costs of your bets and still leave a profit. Taking an example from the favorites, if you can find horses who regularly win at better than 2-1 odds but will win more than a third of the time, you will make a profit.
So when you handicap the races, keep that in mind. Start with the basics such as speed, class, recency or form, connections. How you calculate speed is up to you, you can add the horses last three speed figures and the horse with the highest total is the fastest, or you can just go by the last race speed figure, or any method you prefer. The important thing is to make sure you always use the same method.
When measuring class, look at the purse money the horse has been running for. The higher the purse, the higher the class. Once again, you can total the last few races and the highest total is the most class. But be careful, because just because a horse raced for a high purse, it doesn’t mean he or she was competitive. Some handicappers look at the amount of money the horse has earned in its last 5 races as a true indicator of class.
Form and recency means what condition the horse is in now. Thoroughbreds and Standardbreds are athletes and like all athletes, they have to exercise and the better shape they are in, the better they perform. A good indication of form is any horse who has finished in the money (1st, 2nd, 3rd) in either of its last two races, or raced within two lengths of the leader for at least two calls in a higher class race. In order to make sure the horse is still in that condition, its most recent race should have been at least within 40 days and preferably within 30 days or less.
The connections are the jockey and trainer. Successful jockey trainer teams win many races and the win percentages are published in the past performances for all to see. As a general rule, I don’t like to bet on a jockey with less than a 10% win average or a trainer with less than a 20% win average. Some jockey trainer teams win at better than 30%. That is very important to keep in mind when you handicap a horse race.
It will take practice to learn how to look at all these figures and then decide just how often each horse would win if they all raced in the same race 10 times or 100 times, but that is exactly how you figure out what each bet is worth. For instance, if you know a particular horse, with a certain speed and class rating and the jockey that is on it today would win 3 out of 10 times, then you know that the horse’s fair value odds have to be at least 5-2. Why? Because if that horse won 3 races out of 10 you would have to invest a minimum of $20 (based on $2 win bets) to play all the races. That’s $20.
A horse that wins at 5-2 will pay $7, so 3 x $7 = $21. Admittedly, that isn’t much profit, but it is the break even mark. So your job, if you want to make cash as a handicapper, is to make your own morning line odds for what you think each horse is really worth. If you think a horse will win a third of the time against these same horses, then a break even point becomes 2-1. If you figure that you want to at least make 50% profit when you win, then you can set your own line at 3-1 for that horse.
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